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The original documents, datasets and reports behind the research desk.

Attribution is part of the finding. Filter this library by research topic, then follow the original publication to check the context for yourself. A US source is evidence about its stated scope, not evidence that an operator serves UK customers.

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01 / Source type

Research papers

01
Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Research papers
Funder: Academic working paper; check the paper for author disclosures.
Akey and co-authors analyse Polymarket trading gains across $67bn in volume. Working-paper estimates may be revised.
Who Makes Money on Prediction Markets? Research and Risks
02
The economics of Kalshi prediction markets (opens in a new tab)
Research papers
Funder: CEPR/VoxEU publication; see authors’ disclosures.
Burgi, Deng and Whelan report average losses for maker and taker groups, not guaranteed outcomes for individuals.
Who Makes Money on Prediction Markets? Research and Risks
03
Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run (opens in a new tab)
Research papers
Funder: University of Iowa academic working draft; see acknowledgements.
Berg, Nelson and Rietz compare Iowa Electronic Markets forecasts with 964 polls across five US elections through 2004.
Are Prediction Markets Accurate? Election and Forecast Research
04
Federal Reserve FEDS paper on prediction-market economic forecasts (opens in a new tab)
Research papers
Funder: Federal Reserve Board research series; findings are the authors’ own.
Study of event-contract forecasts for economic releases and policy decisions; not a blanket accuracy ranking.
Are Prediction Markets Accurate? Election and Forecast Research
05
Polymarket volume inflated by artificial activity, study finds (opens in a new tab)
Research papers
Funder: Columbia Business School research coverage; consult the linked study for disclosures.
Describes an algorithmic detection study; a flagged pattern is not a court finding against any particular trader.
Prediction Market Wash Trading: What the Research Found

02 / Source type

Reporting

01
Kalshi banks on its predictions’ accuracy (opens in a new tab)
Reporting
Funder: Semafor reporting; the analysed accuracy study was conducted by Kalshi researchers.
Reports Brier scores of approximately 0.09 three months before close and 0.02 near close. Platform-authored evidence warrants caution.
Are Prediction Markets Accurate? Election and Forecast Research
02
Polymarket volume inflated by wash trading, Columbia study finds (opens in a new tab)
Reporting
Funder: Crypto.news coverage of Columbia researchers’ findings.
Reports the approximate overall and category percentages attributed to the study.
Prediction Market Wash Trading: What the Research Found
03
Columbia study estimates Polymarket wash trading (opens in a new tab)
Reporting
Funder: Decrypt coverage of the Columbia study.
Reports variation over time in algorithmically identified activity; estimates depend on the detection method.
Prediction Market Wash Trading: What the Research Found
04
Prediction markets are minting a new type of insider trader (opens in a new tab)
Reporting
Funder: Bloomberg reporting using Polysights-flagged trades.
Flagged activity is a screening signal, not proof of insider trading. The reviewed trades concern Polymarket’s global exchange.
Insider Trading and Prediction Markets: Evidence and Cases
05
Prediction Market’s First Insider Trading Case (opens in a new tab)
Reporting
Funder: Forbes contributor reporting; confirm subsequent court developments from primary records.
Reports a US federal criminal allegation filed in April 2026. An allegation is not a conviction.
Insider Trading and Prediction Markets: Evidence and Cases

03 / Source type

Independent analysis

01
Trading volume on prediction markets has soared in recent months (opens in a new tab)
Independent analysis
Funder: Pew Research Center; underlying trading series from The Block.
Historical snapshot through April 2026; later Pew analysis uses updated figures.
Prediction Market Statistics 2026: Volume and Growth
02
Prediction markets’ trading volume doubled between May and July, largely driven by sports (opens in a new tab)
Independent analysis
Funder: Pew Research Center; underlying platform data from The Block.
Global Kalshi plus Polymarket volume, including Polymarket US; figures are trading turnover, not revenue or unique users.
Prediction Market Statistics 2026: Volume and Growth

04 / Source type

Government & policy

01
Congressional Research Service: insider trading and prediction markets (opens in a new tab)
Government & policy
Funder: US Congressional Research Service.
US policy analysis, not a statement of UK law or advice about any particular case.
Insider Trading and Prediction Markets: Evidence and Cases

05 / Source type

Surveys & polls

01
Americans view prediction markets as closer to gambling (opens in a new tab)
Surveys & polls
Funder: American Institute for Boys and Men / Ipsos.
61% chose “closer to gambling” and 8% “closer to investing” among Americans in this survey.
What Americans Think About Prediction Markets: Polls Compared
02
Scripps News poll: Most Americans doubt markets can stop insider trading (opens in a new tab)
Surveys & polls
Funder: Scripps News / Talker Research.
19% reported placing a bet on prediction markets; 63% had little or no confidence insider trading can be stopped.
What Americans Think About Prediction Markets: Polls Compared
03
How many Americans use prediction markets for sports? (opens in a new tab)
Surveys & polls
Funder: SSRS Sports Poll.
5% of US adults reported sports prediction-market use; 11% of men aged 18–34 reported it.
What Americans Think About Prediction Markets: Polls Compared
04
Survey: 1 in 5 Americans back prediction markets as good for US (opens in a new tab)
Surveys & polls
Funder: Politico / Public First survey; this citation is secondary reporting.
Question asked respondents with at least some understanding of the topic; not directly comparable to broad adult samples.
What Americans Think About Prediction Markets: Polls Compared
05
Paradigm February 2026 Poll on Prediction Markets (opens in a new tab)
Surveys & polls
Funder: Funded by Paradigm, a crypto-focused investment firm; fielded by Echelon Insights.
32% favourable and 20% unfavourable among respondents who had heard of prediction markets; likely-voter sample, not all US adults.
What Americans Think About Prediction Markets: Polls Compared