The Hub / Research & data

Prediction markets by the numbers.

A research desk for the numbers and source documents behind prediction markets.

Latest / Data notes

76.5%of positive Polymarket profits went to the top 1% of profitable users in one study28 September 2026Original source

74%of 964 poll comparisons favoured the Iowa Electronic Markets forecast in one historical study28 September 2026Original source

$53bncombined Kalshi and Polymarket turnover in July 2026, rounded by Pew28 September 2026Original source

01 / Research index

Follow the evidence.

Six subjects, each with its own source trail, reading notes and transparent methodology.

01 / 01 / PARTICIPATION28 September 202676.5%Who Makes Money on Prediction Markets? Research and Risksof positive Polymarket profits went to the top 1% of profitable users in one study 02 / 02 / FORECASTS28 September 202674%Are Prediction Markets Accurate? Election and Forecast Researchof 964 poll comparisons favoured the Iowa Electronic Markets forecast in one historical study 03 / 03 / MARKET SCALE28 September 2026$53bnPrediction Market Statistics 2026: Volume and Growthcombined Kalshi and Polymarket turnover in July 2026, rounded by Pew 04 / 04 / MARKET INTEGRITY28 September 2026~25%Prediction Market Wash Trading: What the Research Foundof historic Polymarket volume estimated as likely wash trading in research coverage 05 / 05 / MARKET INTEGRITY28 September 2026~$200mInsider Trading and Prediction Markets: Evidence and Casesof flagged Polymarket trades reported for January–June 2026, not proven illicit trades 06 / 06 / PUBLIC OPINION28 September 202661%What Americans Think About Prediction Markets: Polls Comparedcalled prediction-market contracts closer to gambling in one Ipsos survey

02 / Read the record

Figures need a date, a definition, and a source. Every number here should lead you back to the original record.

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