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06 / PUBLIC OPINION

What Americans think about prediction markets 61%

Compare five US polls on gambling, use, trust and public value with transparent samples, sponsors and question wording.

Updated · Research note
The short reading

Polls ask different people different questions. A general-adult attitude, a sports-use question and a likely-voter opinion should not be treated as one trend line.

This is research and context, not a market recommendation or a statement of UK product availability.
At a glance61%called prediction-market contracts closer to gambling in one Ipsos surveyView original source
Measure / 018%called them closer to investingAlternative response in the same AIBM/Ipsos question.View original source
Measure / 0219%reported placing a betScripps News / Talker Research’s separate survey and wording.View original source
Measure / 035%reported sports-market useUS adults in SSRS Sports Poll; not the same activity as the Scripps question.View original source
01 / Analysis

Five polls, five different questions

The table compares field dates, samples, findings and funding or commissioning information. A reported 19% participation figure cannot be subtracted from a 5% sports-use figure: the surveys were run at different times and ask about different activities. Click the linked questionnaire or coverage for the exact wording and weighting before quoting a result.

02 / Analysis

Gambling or investing?

The AIBM/Ipsos poll found that 61% described prediction-market event contracts as closer to gambling and 8% as closer to investing. These are respondents’ perceptions, not legal classifications. UK readers should use the Gambling Commission and FCA context for legal questions about products offered in Britain.

03 / Analysis

Who says they use sports markets?

SSRS reports 5% of American adults using sports prediction markets, rising to 11% among men aged 18–34. The subgroup is narrower and its estimate should not be generalized to all men or all prediction markets. Other polls use “bet,” “trade” or “check a forecast” differently.

04 / Analysis

Why sponsorship belongs next to the number

The Paradigm/Echelon poll was commissioned by a crypto investment firm with an interest in the sector. That does not make the data automatically wrong; it does mean question wording, sample and sponsor should be visible together. A concise headline without those details can mislead.

Evidence / Survey comparison

The poll table.

Sort by column; percentages are not directly comparable across different questions and samples.

Five US prediction-market polls, with sponsor and sample context
Link
AIBM / IpsosMar 2026US adults; see poll methodology61% say closer to gambling; 8% investingAmerican Institute for Boys and MenView poll
Scripps / Talker ResearchApr 2026US adults; see poll methodology19% report betting; 63% doubt insider trading can be stoppedScripps NewsView poll
SSRS Sports PollMay 2026US adults 18+; ongoing national poll5% report sports-market use; 11% of men aged 18–34SSRSView poll
Politico / Public FirstJun 20261,667 adults with some topic understanding, per reportAbout 20% say growth is good for societyPolitico / Public First; see sourceView poll
Paradigm / EchelonFeb 20261,000 US likely voters; favourability among those aware32% favourable; 20% unfavourable among aware respondentsParadigm, a crypto-focused investment firmView poll
Method / How to read this

Methodology.

This is a comparison of published polls, not a pooled estimate. Sample frames include general US adults, an ongoing sports poll and likely voters. Some percentages are conditional on respondents’ familiarity. Funders and fieldworkers are disclosed alongside each row where established; check the linked methodology before comparing subgroups.

Reference / Original record

Sources.

  1. 01
    Americans view prediction markets as closer to gambling (opens in a new tab)
    Surveys & polls

    Funder: American Institute for Boys and Men / Ipsos.

    61% chose “closer to gambling” and 8% “closer to investing” among Americans in this survey.

  2. 02
    Scripps News poll: Most Americans doubt markets can stop insider trading (opens in a new tab)
    Surveys & polls

    Funder: Scripps News / Talker Research.

    19% reported placing a bet on prediction markets; 63% had little or no confidence insider trading can be stopped.

  3. 03
    How many Americans use prediction markets for sports? (opens in a new tab)
    Surveys & polls

    Funder: SSRS Sports Poll.

    5% of US adults reported sports prediction-market use; 11% of men aged 18–34 reported it.

  4. 04
    Survey: 1 in 5 Americans back prediction markets as good for US (opens in a new tab)
    Surveys & polls

    Funder: Politico / Public First survey; this citation is secondary reporting.

    Question asked respondents with at least some understanding of the topic; not directly comparable to broad adult samples.

  5. 05
    Paradigm February 2026 Poll on Prediction Markets (opens in a new tab)
    Surveys & polls

    Funder: Funded by Paradigm, a crypto-focused investment firm; fielded by Echelon Insights.

    32% favourable and 20% unfavourable among respondents who had heard of prediction markets; likely-voter sample, not all US adults.

Follow the original documents for definitions, scope and subsequent revisions. Browse the full source library ↗

Questions / In context

Questions worth asking

01Do most Americans view prediction markets as gambling?

In the cited AIBM/Ipsos question, 61% said event contracts were closer to gambling and 8% closer to investing. That is one survey question, not a legal classification.

02How many Americans use prediction markets?

Estimates differ because surveys ask about trading, betting, checking forecasts or sports use over different periods. Do not merge the 19% Scripps figure with the 5% SSRS sports-use figure.

03Why include who funded a poll?

Sponsorship helps readers assess incentives and inspect question wording. It is context, not a verdict on a poll’s quality.